Our truth is the intersection of independent lies.
Every model is wrong in its own particular way. Line enough of them up and the overlap starts to look like knowledge.
I build models for a living and read about them the rest of the time: commodities and finance, machine learning, pharmacology, economics, cognition. I have not settled on which of those I will end up working in, so for now I write about all of them, and about the part they share.
The Swiss Commodity Trading World, on Two Axes
One of the oldest industries there is, and one of the least documented. An interactive map that puts every kind of actor on a grid of what they do against what they move, so you can see where a firm like Trafigura actually sits.
Next up: Beyond CAPM, and how risk actually gets priced. New anchor essays go up roughly every two weeks, and the RSS feed carries them as they land.